Why did gold swoon?

Don’t get your hopes up. By the end of this post, we will not be able to tell you. But watching gold take a $40 swan dive the morning the government shut down raises plenty of questions.

Here at Kamaaina Loan, gold transactions make up over half our business, so we are intensely interested in price movements. But we have no influence. We buy and sell based on each day’s spot price in New York.

Also, we make no predictions about which direction the price will go. All we know is that it will go up, or down, or (rarely) stay the same. Recently, gold has been steadily dropping. After briefly hitting a record$1,900, it is now selling in below $1,300.

Last week, Goldman Sachs and other big operators predicted that during 2014, the price would average in the $1,200s. This seems bizarre. The Federal Reserve is printing money at the rate of $85 billion  a month, which is supposed to make money worth less, compared to gold.

And you’d have thought that shutting down government would be bad for stocks and dollars and good for gold. Wrong.

The stock market held steady and gold made one of its biggest one-day moves all year — a move down.

Bloomberg News reported that big players were betting that the shutdown would not last long, thus shortcircuiting any flight to precious metals, which is a usual response in troubled times. Go figure. One analyst told Bloomberg:

“While the standoff is not a great thing, the effects seem to be limited, and we are not seeing investors rush to gold for its safe-haven quality,” Frank Lesh, a trader at FuturePath Trading in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Riskier assets like equities seem to be in favor.”

However, Bloomberg also found an analyst, Ron William, who thinks gold will hit $2,000 next year, which would be a record.

Whatever, we stand ready to buy, sell or lend on gold every day.