What does Ron Paul think about gold?

He likes it. We do, too, but possibly not for the same reasons.

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Although it has been getting almost no attention in the United States, Switzerland, home of one of the solidest currencies in the world, is going to vote in a month on whether to add more gold to its money.

In an interview with Kitco News, the retired gold bug and congressman Paul says he thinks the move should pass but won’t. If it did pass, the Swiss central bank would have to buy about 1,500 tons more gold to get its gold reserves up to 20% of paper francs.

That’s about 60% of annual production, though something less than 1% of all the gold humans have accumulated over the millenia. That much additional demand would, presumably, push the world price of gold up, although gold has been gyrating so much this month that it might be hard to tell.

(In round terms, gold dipped under $1200, rose to above $1250 when stocks went down, then fell below $1230 when stocks went up. Stocks didn’t go much of anyplace today, so it will be interesting to see whether gold, also, noodles around Tuesday.

Paul, of course, is the most prominent political voice for the idea that “fiat money” (money backed only by the prospects of the economy of the nation issuing it) is inherently unstable and likely to go “Poof!”

“When our crisis hit there was panic and people were scared to death. Even conservatives who didn’t believe in bailing out the banks were frightened into it,” he said. “But if you had a clean vote and just simply ask the question: ‘should Switzerland hold its own gold … should the central bank hold a certain amount of gold in reserves.’ I think you would get an overwhelming ‘yes.’”

Switzerland keeps 30% of its gold (some of which really should belong to murdered Jews, whose gold the Nazis let Switzerland keep for them in the ’40s) in England and Canada. (More gold is in New York City than Ft. Knox, and much of it belongs to other countries who do not trust their neighbors to keep their hands off their gold. That is, unless, you subscribe to the belief that all the gold has been taken out of Ft. Knox and put somewhere else. Where else? Who knows?)

You know who worries that the gold is not in Ft; Knox?

Ron Paul.

So now you know why he thinks the Swiss should worry about where their gold is.

If you pawn your gold with us, be assured it will stay in a bonded, insured vault and it will be there when you come to reclaim it. Kamaaina Loan And Cash For Gold: safer than Fort Knox!

 

Slow motion stock market crash

The graceful swan dive by Wall Street — the DJIA managed to get under 15,000 today before closing at 16,141, about a thousand below where it was just a couple weeks ago — merits some comment:

Listen up, people. Inflation is whipped. Beat, over and done with. Deflation is the problem, the hardest of all possible economic crises to manage your way out of. (The famous hyperinflation in Germany was controlled rather easily by replacing all the money with “Rentenmarks,” though the damage done was irreversible.)

Some people just won’t believe it. According to Bloomberg News:

Investors who poured more than $1 billion this year into a $3.8 billion leveraged exchange-traded fund that bets against long-dated U.S. Treasuries are suffering a 4.1 percent loss today alone, Bloomberg data show. The fund is down 38 percent this year, a small window into the magnitude of pain in a market where many traders have been wagering debt prices would fall.

Gold, at last, finally woke up to the fact that securities are tanking and started playing its accustomed role as refuge when people are worried.  Gold, after managing to get below $1200 an ounce, was up to $1241 today. Not fabulous compared to where it has been over the last couple of years but reversing a slide that has been going on almost all year.

More from Bloomberg:

“The markets are clearly very jittery,” said Larry Milstein, managing director in New York of government-debt trading at R.W. Pressprich & Co. “It’s not just the global slowdown.”

While Wall Street economists may be sticking to their forecasts Treasuries will lose value, a lot of bond buyers aren’t listening right now. And the bears are suffering the consequences.

Worse off maybe than bond traders is Vladimir Putin. A different Bloomberg story says:

 

 Oil has been the key to Putin’s grip on power since he took over from Boris Yeltsin in 2000, fueling a booming economy that grew 7 percent on average from 2000 to 2008.

Now, with economic growth slipping close to zero, Russia is reeling from sanctions by the U.S. and the European Union over its land grab in Ukraine, and from a ruble at a record low. Putin, whose popularity has been more than 80 percent in polls since the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March, may have less money to raise state pensions and wages, while companies hit by the sanctions also seek state aid to maintain spending.

“His ratings remain high but for a person conducting such a risky policy, Putin has to understand the limits of patience for the people, business and political elite,” said Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a sociologist studying the country’s elite at the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow. “Putin is thinking hard how not to lose face while maintaining his support.”

Couldn’t happen to a nicer fellow, either.

What the heck is going on in the markets?

sales

At Kamaaina Loan we often say — it’s not a lament, just a fact — that we are at the mercy of the world gold market. Buying and selling (or making loans against) gold is our bread-and-butter, and when the price falls as it has recently, it hurts.

Not just our bottom line, but it lowers the amount we can offer on pawn loans. So, such is life.

But most of the time, prices — not just gold but most prices — move in a comprehensible way. There are trends you think you can rely on at least for a week or so. Gold, for example, has been trending down for over a year. Less heralded, the world price of oil has been going down.

You wouldn’t notice from pump prices on Maui, but according to Bloomberg News, the price is almost low enough to make the famous Keystone Pipeline a non-starter. All that political furor and $90 a barrel oil could make the arguments moot.

At the current price of about $87 a barrel, cheap American crude undercuts many of the most aggressive oil projects under consideration by the oil majors. About $1.1 trillion of capital expenditures have been earmarked through 2025 for projects that require a market price of more than $95 a barrel, according to a May study by the Carbon Tracker Initiative, a London-based think tank and environmental advocacy group.

At least the oil price drop is easily understood: production is way up and demand is stable or slightly falling.

But the securities markets seem to have lost their mind this week. Tuesday was the best day of the year, and today the overall market is swooning in a most remarkable way.

U.S. stocks plunged, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s erasing its biggest rally this year, on concern that slowing growth in Europe will hurt the American economy as the Federal Reserve ends its bond purchases.

All 10 of the main S&P 500 groups dropped at least 0.8 percent, with energy stocks plunging 3.5 percent to pace losses.

In a general way, a falling stock market is supposed to be good for gold, and this seems to hold true this week, although only in a modest way:

A combination of heavy short covering in the futures market, bargain hunting and safe-haven buying boosted the yellow metal.

After dropping well below $1200 early in the week, spot gold (the price of concern to Cash For Gold) rallied to about $1225.

For those who keep score, that is right where Goldman Sachs, a year ago, said gold would be around the end of 2014.

From our point of view, when gold behaves this way, your pawnbroker is your friend: If you need to convert your gold to greenbacks, you probably don’t want to sell at these price levels. But you can take out a pawn loan, reclaim your gold in 30 to 60 days and hope for higher prices in the future.

#mauipawn #mauigold #mauishopping

 

Sell us your gold

We at Kamaaina Loan And Cash For Gold buy and sell gold every day. It matters to us whether the world gold market is up or down but we cannot do anything about that. Here is a Bloomberg News story that is very down on gold:

“There are no compelling reasons to be in gold,” said Brian Levitt, a New York-based economist at OppenheimerFunds Inc., which manages $251.4 billion. “There are no inflationary pressures. You have a central bank that’s going to tighten sooner than most of its trading partners. That to me portends a strong dollar and weaker gold prices.”

What that seems to mean is that if you are thinking you might sell gold anytime in the next little while, now is the time to do it.

Ditto for silver, which fell under $18 an ounce for the first time in a long while last week.

#mauigold #mauipawn #mauiloanIMG_3682

Gold price is down; reasons to feel good about that

Gold futures have declined, trading near the bottom of their recent price range, which is $1240 an ounce. (The spot price, which is what Kamaaina Loan uses to buy or lend on gold, is a little higher, about $1253 this morning; silver is below $19, which is the low end of its range, too.)

Thank goodness somebody is buying this stuff

Thank goodness somebody is buying this stuff

When the futures price is lower than the spot price, that suggests the big traders are expecting the price to continue to decline, according to Kitco.

So why should anyone feel good about that? Well, as pawnbrokers dealing in gold, we don’t feel especially good about it; but there is a bigger world out there, and falling gold prices generally (but maybe not always) suggest that people feel pretty good about the future. Despite bad news — fighting in Ukraine and Iraq and Syria, disease wrecking the already not-too-good economies of west Africa, nervousness about elections in America and Scotland, apparently “people” are feeling pretty chipper.

Well, what people? People who control the bulk of the world’s gold exchanges.

And why should we think they have an especially good handle on the future? Now, that is a complicated question. The short answer is that studies have shown that among people who make predictions (which is what futures trading is all about), the trend among the many tends (but only tends) to make a better forecast than any one particular guru.

In the Financial Times, Tim Harford reports (“How to see into the future”) on a study that supposedly supports that idea. Of course, for every trader who offered a pessimistic price, there was another who disagreed with him, but the trend is supposed to be the thing. And the price trend is down.

(There are some real problems with the study, the main one being that its time frame is so short, with participants being asked to make predictions one year out. As we know too painfully, someone who forecast in 2006 that the stock market would crash [and there were such people] was only too right, but he would have looked wrong for the next year and more.)

Anyhow, so the theory goes, precious metals are a refuge in times of trouble, and so when people are expecting trouble, they should be bidding the price up. Instead, the big money is bidding it down, which ought to forecast rosy dawns and blue skies ahead.

#mauipawn #mauiloan #mauigold #gold

 

 

Fixing the price

As Kamaaina Loan blog has often said, we (and all other pawnbrokers) are at the mercy of the international gold market. We have no way to influence the price.

If we offer you $500 on Monday because gold is selling at, say, $1300, and it goes down the next day to $1200, that’s our risk. Nothing we can do about it. (And if the price goes up, lucky us.)

It would be nice to think that gold is a true market. We don’t want to play if somebody is scamming the game.

It turns out, somebody is. Or was. In this Bloomberg News report, we learn how a Barclays trader managed to depress the world price by a few cents in order to cheat a client out of $3.9 million.

The manipulation was small and lasted only minutes. Not enough to affect our pawnshop, but worrying nonetheless.

We would like to think that the world market is big enough and free enough to avoid serious manipulation. But we know people will try.

(Barclays was in a position to work this scam because it is one of 4 banks that participate in the daily “London fixing.” The other members are from Canada, Scotland and France, reflecting the international balance of influence in 1919 when this system was set up.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The risk the pawnbroker takes

All lenders take a risk,  but pawnbrokers live with an unquantifiable risk that most other lenders do not have to worry about: the possibility that gold will crash.

We have written often about how our

Some of Kamaaina Loan's gold inventory.

Some of Kamaaina Loan’s gold inventory.

Maui pawn shop is at the mercy of the world gold market on the Kamaaina Loan blog. Today, the lesson is driven home in an example from England: Albemarle & Bond, a chain with 180 locations, was caught holding a lot of gold when the price started falling last year. Now it’s bankrupt.

Albemarle’s situation was partly of its own creation. According to earlier news reports, it chose to hold gold.

Kamaaina Loan’s situation is different in important respects. First, we are not a stock company. The stock market can act with  brutal swiftness when it perceives that a company has bet wrong. While gold is down about a third from its recent peak, Albemarle & Bond’s stock went down 97%.

Second, we do not hold a lot of gold. We have some in inventory as jewelry at our retail store at 96 N. Market St. And we have quite a lot  being held as collateral for loans at our pawn shop at 52 North Market Street.

State law requires us to hold pledges for 60 days. Right now (according to the historical charts at Kitco.com), gold we lent against 60 days ago is worth a little more than it was then: $1310 an ounce this morning compared with $1260 then.

Over the past six months, the net change in gold has been almost 0, although there have been many ups and downs in between.

We prefer that our customers redeem their gold pawns, as most do. First, a redeeming customer is probably a satisfied customer who might want to do another loan someday. Second, if we have to take over the collateral, there are overhead expenses, so even if gold has gone up a few  bucks, we might not cover our costs by selling. And if gold goes down over 60 days, we for sure cannot cover our expenses.

Over the long haul, the best way to play the world gold market is not to try to beat it but to go with the flow: Sell gold as it comes in and live with the ups and downs. As we understand it, that is not what Albemarle did. They held gold when they didn’t have to and got  burned.

Pawnbrokers in India, who are even more tied to gold than even American pawnbrokers, apparently are caught in the Albemarle trap, too.

It’s great when gold goes up. Everybody feels happy, and those who are holding “physical gold” as the speculators like to call it make windfall profits. If that sounds like the real estate business in the early 2000s, that’s because the situation is parallel.

Leverage works just as much in down markets as in up markets, though.

 

Gold: S.O.S.

There’s a reader forum at the Kitco.com website where followers can discuss Kamaaina Loan’s second favorite subject, the price of gold. (The favorite is our customers.)

Even Kitco describes the recent behavior of the world gold price as “carnage.” The New York market is about to close as this is written, and it looks as if today’s price will be $90 an ounce under where it was (briefly) just two weeks ago.

So the forum asked the S.O.S. question, are the followers going to Stay with gold Or Sell? The unanimous answers were STAY.

In a way, that’s bad news for our Maui pawn shop. If nobody sells gold, what will we do?

Well, we could lend money on gold, and we do that, but sellers are an important part of our business.

Oh. Not only are most of the Kitco Kommenters staying, most are planning to buy more gold! That’s a relief. We sell gold, too.

Thank goodness somebody is buying this stuff

Thank goodness somebody is buying this stuff

 

Kitco is mentioned  because it publishes a moment-by-moment price statement on the Internet, very convenient for pawnbrokers, who need a daily fix of gold info.

Nyah, nyah, Vladimir Putin

We guess the world — at least the part of it that buys gold — is not afraid that Russia will invade the rest of Ukraine. Gold dropped under $1300 an ounce and has stayed there for two whole days.

7,783 of these per ounce

778 of these per ounce

This suggests that the blip up in the past couple of weeks was due (in part anyway) to war jitters (almost always good for gold if not for anyone else) and now it has resumed its predicted long decline until . . .

$1300 itself is probably not an important price level. It’s easy to remember, and when I was a business reporter nice round numbers were often described as “important psychological marks,” but there’s not much evidence that this works for something that is traded by so many people in so many countries and in so many currencies as gold.

India is a big market for gold, and the $1300 price point in dollars does not work out to a round number of rupees. In fact, it’s 77,831 rupees.

Like a deer in the headlights

Iraq has purchased 1.1 million — yes, MILLION — ounces of gold, according to Kitco.

Some of Kamaaina Loan's gold inventory.

Some of Kamaaina Loan’s gold inventory.

Analysts speculate that this quiet buying helped support the world gold price recently. Shucks, we thought it was because the world was afraid Vladimir Putin was starting World War III.

In any event, if Putin spooked the market, that’s over. Gold was back down to $1312 in New York today. It had nudged up to $1380, which was $100 an ounce higher than at the beginning of the year.

That’s a gain of nearly 8%. All gone now.

Here at Kamaaina Loan, we feel like we imagine a deer feels in the headlights — transfixed but helpless to do anything about it. For our Maui pawn shop, transactions in fractions of ounces are our bread and butter. A  purchase or sale of 10 ounces would be a red letter day.

We, of course, like to see the price of gold go up. We have a sizable amount of gold in our jewelry store at 98 North Market St., so rising prices make that more valuable. Even more important, if gold goes up, we can lend our pawn customers more, earning more interest for us.

If the smart money is right, though, the trend is not in our favor. Goldman Sachs and Societe General, big playas, are looking for an average 2014 price as low as $1225. Bloomberg News reports:

Bullion, which slid last year by the most since 1981 as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value, rebounded 9 percent in 2014 as the global expansion faltered and tensions escalated in Ukraine. Those bullish influences are “transient,” and the U.S. economy will recover from a weather-driven slowdown, pushing gold lower, Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie reiterated in a March 20 report.

Since the year is already almost one quarter over, it will take a 6+% decline just to get to $1225. To get to an average of $1225, the bottom price would have to go lower still.

What can we tell you? If you want to sell or pawn your gold jewelry sometime this year, Goldman Sachs thinks you should do it now rather than later.

We have no idea.